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Week One Top 25

September 4, 2011 Leave a comment

1. Alabama

2. Oklahoma

3. LSU

4. Stanford

5. Boise State

6. Oregon

7. Texas A&M

8. Virginia Tech

9. Oklahoma State

10. Wisconsin

11. Florida State

12. Arkansas

13. Ohio State

14. South Carolina

16. Florida

17. Penn State

18. Nebraska

19. Baylor

20. Mississippi State

21. Houston

22. Michigan State

23. Arizona State

24. Northwestern

25. Central Florida

2011 NCAA Football Preview Pt. 1: Early Heisman race

It’s been a while. I’m going to try out the Bruce Feldman format this time.

The world hasn’t seen a Heisman winner like Cam Newton ever in my lifetime. Though this year’s winner likely won’t be another first year starter or transfer, there aren’t many standouts early.

The likely top candidate is Stanford QB Andrew Luck. The junior has been heralded as the top QB prospects coming out of college since Peyton Manning in the late 90’s. Structurally, you couldn’t ask for a better QB – 6’5″ and just shy of 240 lbs. He possesses all the tools a pro QB needs and has showcased it at Stanford for the last two years. He’s as tough as they come too, showcase in this Ed Reed-esque hit against USC. With a veteran O-Line and solid receiving corps including Chris Owusu, Luck will be the best player in College Football. He may not put up the video game stats needed to win the award, however.

My actual favorite to win the award (and sits in most peoples’ top three) is Bama junior running back Trent Richardson. Now that poster boy Mark Ingram is gone to the Saints, Richardson will be the Tide’s feature back – in every sense of the word. With a new QB at the helm (whom hasn’t even been chosen yet) Richardson will definitely get the number of carries needed to put up 1500+ yards on the ground. Physically, you won’t find a better looking back that Richardson. He’s a poor man’s Ricky Williams at 5’11”, 220 lbs. He runs in the low-to-middle 4.4’s, and even returns punts – the factor that likely tipped the Heisman scale for 1999 winner Charles Woodson.

The last serious contender at this point who no one seems to be giving any credit to is Oregon’s LaMichael James. James led that nation last year totaling over 1700 yards rushing. The Texas native is absolutely taylor-made for Chip Kelly faced-paced offense, and should realistically be able to equal his performance last season. The biggest issue for James is his size – can he stay as durable as he has at just 5’9″ 185 lbs? The Pac-12 hasn’t play much defense in the last two years, so who knows.

Two players too good to be labeled “darkhorses” are Oklahoma State’s Justin Blackmon and South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery.  Both will be among the top-10 most talented players next season, but the Heisman hasn’t given much love to receivers in recent years. Blackmon, who is  an amazing-catch machine, will be labeled as a “product of the system” playing in Oklahoma State’s spread offense. Jeffery, who is a nightmare of a matchup at 6’4″ 235 lbs, may be a better receiver than Blackmon, but won’t put up the stats that Blackmon will.

Quick hit candidates (In no particular order):

Kellen Moore – QB, BSU: Can he produce without the two best receiving threats he’s ever had in Austin Pettis and Titus young?

Dennard Robinson – QB, MU: Will he run wild or distribute the ball more in Al Borges’ new pro-style offense?

Matt Barkley – QB, USC: Likely won’t have the talent around him to showcase his own.

Brandon Weeden – QB, OKST: Like Blackmon, will receive the “system QB” label.

Taylor Martinez – QB, NU: Is he durable enough to be at full speed for a whole season?

Dan Persa – QB, NW: If he’s 100% coming back from an ACL tear, could be an elite QB.

Ryan Lindley – QB, SDSU: A great pro prosepct, can he get the hype and stats in the Mountain West?

Knile Davis – RB, ARK: With a new QB, Davis should get a big number of carries, topping 1300 yards again.

Ronnie Hillman – RB, SDSU: If he builds on a sensational freshman year, he’ll be in the top-5 fast.

Landry Jones – QB, OU: He’s got experience, talent, weapons around him, and possibly the best team in college football.

What we learned in College Football: Week 5

October 3, 2010 Leave a comment

Not having a Husker game to watch or attend gave me a solid twelve hour day to watch football.  It was glorious.  Also, do yourself a favor and go see “The Social Network”

1.  Oregon adjusts better than any team in the country

They showed it last night, not only scoring 28 second quarter points, but holding Stanford to zero second half points.  They didn’t just do it against on of the nation’s top quarterbacks, they held a respectable Arizona State team to just seven second half points after 24 in the first.  Their best adjustments came against Tennessee, when the Ducks pitched a second half shutout while scoring 35 on the Vols.  If anyone is going to beat Oregon, they’re going to have to convince the officials to call it at halftime.

2.  There’s no question who the best team out there is, again

Florida is not the team they once were with Tim Tebow, but they were still absolutely outclassed by the Alabama.  Despite actually having a lower yardage total, Alabama had control of this game from the beginning and never looked back.  They’ve got hands down the best running back tandem in the country, and a seasoned game-manager of a quarterback.  They even showed against Arkansas that they can play from behind-and win.  Something catastrophic would need to happen to keep the Tide out of the championship game again this year.

3.  Contrary to popular belief, Denard Robinson is not in fact human

What can you say about this guy?  What he’s done so far has been absolutely unreal.  He’s leading the nation in rushing yards with 905, nearly 200 more than the next competitor.  He’s third national with a passer rating of 180, and broke the 1000 yard passing mark this week.  He’s on pace to rush for over 2000 yards, and pass for nearly 2500, which would be an absolute earth-shattering record.  To put his numbers into perspective, consider Georgia Tech’s Joshua Nesbitt of last year.  Robinson is about 125 rushing yards from matching Nesbitt’s total rushing yards from last year, and through 5 games, is halfway to the point of matching Nesbitt’s passing numbers-which he compiled in 14 games.  Granted, Michigan has not really played any very goods teams yet, and nothing close to some of the defenses they will face, but you can’t argue with the numbers.

4.  It’s going to take all season to sort out the Big 12

The SEC has Alabama, it looks like the Pac 10 and Big 10 have Oregon and Ohio State respectively, and the Big East has West Virginia.  But the Big 12 is doing a good job of hiding its best team.  Despite the win, Oklahoma looked unimpressive against hapless rebuilding Texas, Nebraska looked less than stellar last week against an FCS opponent, and Oklahoma State looks like they could play a spoiler (or sleeper?) role this year.  The division favorites look like Oklahoma and Nebraska at this point, but they won’t play in the regular season.  After the last two weeks, it certainly doesn’t look like any member will be running the table.

5.  It’s early, but it looks like Boise State will be getting left in the dust again

The pollsters jumped at the chance to put Oregon ahead of Boise State in the AP poll after their impressive win over top 10 Stanford.  It doesn’t look like any of the three teams at the top (Alabama, Ohio State, and Oregon) will be going anywhere soon, which doesn’t bode well for Boise State and their woefully weak schedule, even if they do play Nevada.  As if that’s not enough to worry about, they will most certainly be passed up by an undefeated winner of the Utah-TCU match up.

Facts of the week

Through 5 weeks, Kealoha Pilares and Greg Salas of Hawaii have the 2 highest receiving yardages in all of college football, both with over 600 yards receiving.  I’d be willing to bet that that’s happened less than 5 times

-Michigan’s Denard Robinson became the first quarterback in NCAA history to rush for 200 yards and pass for 200 yards in twice in one season.  Five games in, mind you.

-Washington has beaten USC in back to back years for the first time since 1996 and 1997

-Oregon State has not turned the ball over yet this season

-Seven Big 10 quarterbacks are ranked in the top 20 of passer ratings.  The Pac 10 has 2

-Monte Kiffin’s USC defense ranks 99th nationally

-The Big East and ACC no longer have any undefeated teams

-Joe Paterno is 3 wins shy of 400 all time wins

-Virginia Tech lost to to FCS James Madison and beat 23rd ranked NC State in a span of less than four weeks

Conference Confidence Part 2

August 9, 2010 Leave a comment

Continued from yesterday, starting with #7.  Slightly elaborated from here on out.

7.  The Big Ten:  Ohio State

The Buckeye’s dominance in the Big 10 has been contested more and more in the last 2 years.  Last year may have been the best chance for any team to dethrone them, but this year’s big three in the Big 10 have schedules that create a perfect storm for upset.  Ohio State of course returns as the favorite.  However, we’re going to have to pay a lot closer attention to Wisconsin this year, and Iowa will be a force yet again.  Without injury to quarterback Ricky Stanzi in 2009, Iowa goes 12-0 and wins the Big 10.  The Hawkeye defense will be nasty again in 2010.  Wisconsin went 10-3,  two of those losses coming from Iowa and Ohio State in The Horseshoe.  They return 17 starters which includes arguably the best offensive line in the nation, and 1500 yard rusher John Clay.  Last year’s champs Ohio State return 18 starters with stars on both sides of the ball.

The kicker, in my opinion, is the scheduling.  The way I see, Ohio State is the best team, with Wisconsin being the next best, and Iowa being the third best of the “big 3”.  Iowa (3rd best) gets to play both Iowa and Ohio State at home.  Wisconsin (2nd best) gets Ohio State at home, but has to travel to face the Hawks in Iowa City.  And finally, Ohio State (Best team) has to go to Madison and Iowa City to play Wisconsin and Iowa respectively.  Parity anyone?

Gun to my head, I’d let my primal football instincts take over and tell you that teams who play stout defense and run the ball well win on the road.  Except all three of these teams play good defense and run the ball heavily.  Gun to my head and hammer cocked, I’d take Ohio State.

Next in Line:  Iowa and Wisconsin.  Upset odds?  I wouldn’t put money on this one.

8.  Pac 10:  Oregon

The Pac 10 is a lot lower on the list thanks to questions and unknowns coming from the top of the league.  Oregon will be breaking in a new quarterback after kicking Jeremiah Masoli off the team, USC has a new head coach and plenty of personal replacement to deal with, and Arizona is replacing both coordinators.  There’s also the up and comers to considers; UCLA, and Washington likely filling that role.  Oregon State and Stanford could potentially be forces as well.

There’s no doubt who the most talented team in the league is, and that’s USC yet again.  That’s why I’ve got Oregon winning the Pac 10 as one of my less confident picks.  Big time defensive personnel losses by USC in 2008 were likely the cause of the Trojan’s dropoff in 2009, and starting a true freshman quarterback is no cakewalk either.  If Pete Carroll and company were returning to USC in 2010, I would probably have them as my favorites.  However, the coaching change means USC will be adjusting to it’s third offensive and defensive coordinators in 3 years.

Oregon returns the majority of it’s starts on the offensive line and will have a excellent linebacking corps.  Redshirt sophomore LaMichael James will be the focal point of Oregon’s offense after rushing for just over 1500 yards in 2009.  Oregon has the most experience returning in 2010, and should be the conference favorite.

Next in Line:  USC and Arizona.  Upset Odds?  40% in my eyes.  This battle could go on till the bitter end.

9.  Big 12:  Oklahoma

The Big 12, like the Pac 10, has a ton of unknowns near the top of the league.  Oklahoma has the least, in my opinion.  They know what they have on defense, and we got a very extensive preview of what the offense will look like when Sam Bradford went out with shoulder injuries in 2009.  The Sooners managed to be the most statistically prolific team in the Big 12 and lose 5 games all in the same season last year, due to injuries, and general bad luck.  With more experience on the offensive line and less holes and questions due to injury, Oklahoma should be the class of the Big 12.

So why so low on the list?  Well there’s always Texas, which has been there (an beaten OU) 4 of the last 5 meetings.  Then there’s Nebraska, who has arguably the most favorable schedule of the three with Texas at home and no Oklahoma in the regular season.  Texas obviously must replace Colt McCoy, the all-time winningest quarterback in college football history.  And although they have to replace NFL draft picks like Earl Thomas, Rod Muckelroy, Lamarr Houston, and Sergio Kindle, they’ve got plenty of talent waiting in the wings, and a secondary that might be the best in the nation.  Nebraska, who nearly upset Texas in the Big 12 Championship last season, has big questions on offense, but returns 10 0f 11 starters from last year’s injury plagued squad.  The defense has big shoes to fill after losing Ndamukong Suh and both starting safeties, but Bo Pelini’s brand of defense should continue to field an elite unit.

Oklahoma may have the least questions to answer, but if Texas or Nebraska can answer their own questions they think they can and will, this conference could be a toss up.

Next in Line:  Texas and Nebraska.  Upset odds?  Possible coin flip

10.  The SEC:  Alabama

The SEC should again be a battle between Florida and Alabama, with more bumps in the road this time around.  After looking extensively through the SEC schedule, I just can’t justify to myself seeing any team make it through the whole regular season with an undefeated record.  Between the two power players Florida and Alabama, Florida has in my opinion the more favorable conference schedule with an away game in Tuscaloosa being the only game they won’t be the favorite in.  Alabama on the other hand should be favored in all game, but have more chances to be upset, with trips to South Carolina, Arkansas, and LSU which will most certainly be a Death Valley night game, one of the most difficult to win.  Resurgent Auburn gave Bama a close call last year, and should be even better this year.

As for LSU and Arkansas, I just don’t see them as contenders or even sleepers just yet.  That may change as the season rolls on, especially if Arkansas starts playing some defense, or LSU starts playing some offense.  They may play spoiler to one of the big boys on a select week, but Alabama is the class of the SEC west until proven otherwise.

Next in line:  Florida.  Upset Odds?  Actual coin flip.

11.  The ACC:  Miami

This one is as close as it gets.  Ask me again tomorrow, and Florida State might be my choice.  The day after that?  Possibly Virginia Tech or North Carolina.  One thing is for sure, the ACC will be a battle until the final quarter of the regular season.  And lest we forget last year’s champion Georgia Tech…

In years past, Virginia Tech has been the premier team in the ACC, winning two of the last three and playing in three of the last five.  And for the first time (possibly ever) the Hokies will be relying on offense with several holes left on defense after 2009.  They might have the best stable of running backs in the nation led by Ryan Williams and Darren Evans returning from in jury.  An early trip to Boston College we be a tough defensive test, and back to back November trips to North Carolina and Miami will provide the true season test.

Miami, who will be quite possibly the fastest, most talented, and most experienced group of players in the league, needs to prove they can be the best team. They have a gauntlet of a schedule early on starting conference play at Clemson after road tests at Ohio State and Pittsburgh.  The following week they get Florida State at home.  If they can duplicate last year’s early success and lose only one game in that early run, they should be in good shape to make a conference championship run.  The Canes get North Carolina and Virginia Tech at home, but must travel to Georgia Tech.

Georgia Tech will need to seriously surprise a lot of people on defense with new defensive coordinator Al Groh transitioning the ramblin’ wreck to a 3-4 defense, especially after last year’s less than stellar defense lost it’s two best players; defensive end Derrick Morgan and safety Morgan Burnett.  After also losing star running back Jonathan Dwyer, Tech will have a tough test with grueling schedule starting early at North Carolina and finishing (in conference) with Miami at home.  In between, they have trips to Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Florida State and North Carolina could both be serious contenders if they start playing both sides of the ball.  UNC’s defense will be all-universe, and FSU’s offense will be among the best.  However, the Heels’ offense has been stagnant recently and needs to show that they can be explosive or all that talent on defense will be a waste.  Likewise at Florida State, new defensive coordinator Mark Stoops needs to have his guys playing the Stoops brand of defense right out of the gate if the Seminoles are going to take full advantage of their somewhat favorable (compared to the other contenders) schedules.

Next in Line:  Virginia Tech, Florida State, Georgia Tech, North Carolina  Upset Odds?  Likely