Nebraska Week 3 Wrap Up: Starting to Take Shape

Now that Nebraska has faced a legitimate(?) opponent, some of the unknowns surrounding this team are starting to get cleared up.  Obviously questions remain, but I think we’re starting to get a pretty good idea of the kind of team Nebraska is.

It wasn’t always pretty, and it hasn’t exactly looked pretty over the course of the 3 game season, but one thing is for sure- Nebraska is starting to look the part.

Washington is definitely not a good measuring stick compared to 2009 Virginia Tech (Nebraska’s first road test that year), but Nebraska certainly left a good impression in the first interview for top-10 position.

They did exactly what they needed to do first and foremost- make an early statement and keep the foot on the throat.  The early statement came when Eric Hagg picked off Jake Locker’s first pass attempt and returned it for 11 yards.  Two plays, 48 yards, and 36 seconds later, Mike McNeil hauled in a Taylor Martinez touchdown pass.  The offense never let up or folded, despite coughing up the ball inside their own 10 yard line and allowing an easy Washington touchdown that brought the Dawgs within a score.  They responded by marching to ball down the field in 8 plays into the endzone to take a 28-14 halftime lead.  They equaled the 28 first half points in the second half, 21 of which came in an explosive third quarter highlighted by Alfonzo Dennard’s 31 yard interception return for a score.

The defense looked equally impressive, holding (once presumed) Heisman hopeful and potential top draft pick Jake Locker to an ugly 4 of 20 for 71 yards passing, with one touchdown to two interceptions.  The lone touchdown allowed (and majority of yards) through the air came on a rare miscue by the Nebraska  secondary.  Although Washington did amass 175 yards rushing, it was eclipsed by their utter inability to get the passing game going.

-The ground game was unstoppable for Nebraska.  For only the fifth time in school history, Nebraska had three players rush for over 100 yards; Roy Helu, Taylor Martinez, and Rex Burkhead.  Brandon Kinnie also gained over 100 yards receiving for the first time in his career, add in his impressive 39 yard kickoff return, and he had bar none his best game in a Husker uniform to date.  I’m starting to read/hear more and more that he’s overtaken Niles Paul as the top receiver for Nebraska

-The rush defense still worries me.  The linebackers are undersized to begin with, and missing assignments are making Eric Martin and Lavonte David’s inexperience more known.  The secondary is simply shutting receivers down, but that’s going to matter when Kansas State runs Daniel Thomas up the middle 40 times in Manhattan, same with Kendall Hunter in Stillwater against Oklahoma State.  They have made some pretty good improvements up to this point, but they still need to improve for Nebraska to consider themselves and elite defense

-Don’t be surprised if South Dakota State scores some points on Nebraska next Saturday.  The reason?  Well, at the going rate, I might be playing strong safety in the fourth quarter after the coaching staff pulls the 1st stringers, 3rd stringers, water boys, and chain gang in the fourth quarter.

A few more predictions:

1.  Taylor Martinez might begin to hear faint Heisman whispers if they leave him in long enough on Saturday to account for over 300 yards.

2.  Nebraska will be tied for (if not leading) most interceptions in the nation after Saturday.  They are currently tied for second (8 INTs) to Florida (10 INTs).

3.  There will be a special teams touchdown by Nebraska in one of the next 2 games

4.  The race for the starting MIKE linebacker spot is going to heat up leading up to the Kansas State game, in Manhattan Kansas.

5.  Taylor Martinez will be named homecoming king on a write-in basis, despite being neither a candidate or eligible.

Nebraska Week 2 Wrap Up: Crash Course Defense

Last week was too early to judge, and I still believe that it’s too early to pass serious judgement on this team.  Nebraska looked a little more like Nebraska on Saturday, however.  The defensive line looked once again like an elite unit, and the secondary proved against a solid quarterback (Nathan Enderle) that they are among the best in the country.  The defense is learning on a crash course, and I’ve got a feeling that the Blackshirts are going to show up big time against Washington.

-The offense was less than impressive.  Yes, they did rack up 360 rushing yards, but they put the ball on the ground 4 times.  Taylor Martinez looked less than impressive as a passer, taking 2 sacks and throwing an interception to no touchdown passes.  (He has yet to throw a touchdown pass)  Martinez has accounted for over 250 yards of offense in the last 2 games, mostly on the ground.  It seems very impressive now, but I’m very interested (or nervous?) to see how faster and more talented defenses will try to contain him.

-It was good to see Roy Helu having a good game yet again.  Helu rushed for 107 yards on 9 carries averaging nearly 12 yards per carry, with help from a 58 yard touchdown dash.  Rex Burkhead had yet another good all-around effort, rushing for 77 yards and and receiving for 41 yards.  Taylor Martinez tacked on 157 yards on the ground, making him a top-10 rusher in the nation.

-Niles Paul desperately needs to step it up.  He’s got 2 fumbles already and multiple dropped passes.  As an elite senior wide receiver, he really has no excuse to be making fundamental mistakes like these.  It’s too early to call him inconsistent, but he’s not doing anything to kick the habit of following an impressive with a poor showing the next week.

-Nathan Enderle is a solid quarterback, and the Blackshirts picked him off 5 times.  I’m curious to see if they can follow up that performance next week against Jake Locker, THE elite quarterback.  Larry Asante and Matt O’Hanlon were both very good safeties, but the combination of Dejon Gomes, Ricky Thenarse, and P.J. Smith might be Nebraska’s best group of safeties this decade.  With Prince Amukamara and Alfonzo Dennard working the corners, this might end up being Nebraska’s best secondary in over a decade.  I might be getting ahead of myself here, but I think this secondary is going to be special.  Congratulations to Alfonzo Dennard for his first collegiate interception.

-I was impressed with the defensive line’s pass rush.  Granted, they were able to pin their ears back most of the day thanks to Idaho’s pass happy offense, but seven sacks is impressive either way.  Crick looked like the Crick of old, and Baker Steinkuhler is going to be getting called “The Next Crick” pretty soon.  Pierre Allen seemed to spend all day in the backfield, and Terrence Moore looked very impressive to me.  Once Jason Ankrah gets some good game fire experience under his belt, he will be a force.

-I was a little disappointed not to see anything terribly exciting from the special teams.  Although Idaho did do a good job of kicking away from Marlowe and Niles Paul.  I am looking forward to seeing what they can do against Washington’s sub-par punt and kickoff coverage units.

-A few predictions:

1.  Nebraska beats Washington in the fourth quarter

2.  The Blackshirts pick off Jake Locker 2 or more times

3.  Eric Martin will make his presence known in Seattle

4.  Next week we’ll know whether or not we need to start sweating Crick to the NFL thoughts

5.  Roy Helu and Taylor Martinez might combine for 2000 yards rushing if they’re not too careful.

Nebraska Week 1 Wrap Up: All I Know Is That I Know Nothing

As stated above, I really don’t see any point in passing judgement in the Nebraska football team just yet.  And I’m hoping that’s for the better, because I was not overly impressed with the Huskers, and they certainly did not look like a top 10 team or an elite defense.

But before I get to critical, allow me to explain.  Remember last year when we thought Zac Lee was the bee’s knees when he went for a combined 42 of 57 for 553 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception against Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State?  Taylor Martinez looked good yes, but I’m giving him the “guilty until proven innocent” policy, thanks to Zac Lee.

-But on we go to the game.  The first thing that stood out to me was shaky kickoff coverage.  Ordinarily I would chalk it up to first game jitters, but the Nebraska special teams units return nearly every player sans Matt O’Hanlon.  Adi Kunalic only had one touchback, but it was a little breezy, and Western Kentucky’s return man was pretty cavalier with his returns from his own endzone.  Perhaps we were spoiled by last year’s excellent unit, perhaps I was letdown by the lack of a bone crushing tackle or block.  Either way, the “problems” (for lack of a better word) should be ironed out early.

-It was good to see Ricky Thenarse starting at safety again.  Ricky’s always been one of my favorite players, and I’ve always thought he was one of the more athletically gifted players on the team.  He was solid all night, and I can’t wait to see him lay some licks on receivers again.  Dejon Gomes on the other hand, was slightly inconsistent.  Don’t get me wrong, I think he’ll be a ball-hawking force before long, but he got caught out of place a few times, one resulting in a 3rd and long conversion by WKU.  He did however show yet again that he is one of the most clutch players in college football, forcing WKU tailback Bobby Rainey to fumble the ball one yard outside of the endzone after running 45 yards through Nebraska’s  miscommunicated defense.  And I still hold tight to my prediction that he will lead the league in interceptions.

-It appears as though Rex Burkhead is going to be the featured back this year.  Roy Helu got the first touch, but Burkhead seemed to be the go to guy, and for good reason.  He averaged over 11 yards per carry and had an early 20 yards touchdown run that gave Nebraska and early 14-0 lead.  One thing I saw from Helu that really impressed me was his finish on the touchdown run he had.  He was stood up nearly a yard and a half outside of the endzone, but didn’t go down.  With a little help he stayed up and pushed his way into the endzone, which he’s had trouble doing in the past.

-Western Kentucky did a good job of exploiting Nebraska’s inexperience at linebacker.  The use of motion shouldn’t have dogged the blackshirts as much as it did, but I’m not terribly worried about.  Alonzo Whaley and Lavonte David had less than 2 weeks to prepare for this game as true starters, and they seemed to learn relatively quick.  But I am still a little concerned about the rush defense.  It appeared to me than the defensive line seemed to resort to simply pinning their ears back and pass rushing when they should have been run stopping.  I’m sure hoping this is the case, because Nebraska’s three nickel backers are undersized.

-Depending on how much Nebraska throws the ball, the tandem of Niles Paul and Brandon Kinnie may turn out to be a better combo than Nate Swift and Todd Peterson.  Paul had 5 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown, while Kinnie grabbed 5 for 59 yards.  Brandon Kinnie is a flat out force over the middle, he is physical specimen, and I think he’s going to turn out to be Taylor Martinez’s safety net on intermediate throws.  I was disappointed that Mike McNeil didn’t get any catches, but when you’ve got two receivers as impressive as Paul and Kinnie, catches are going to be hard to come by.

-Tim Marlowe appears to really have come into his own this off season.  Western Kentucky had a nasty pick your poison situation when both Niles Paul and Marlowe were deep to field kicks and punts.  He also showed that he can be a legit offensive weapon running a 13 yard jet sweep.  I’d like to see him get a shot to line up in the slot with the rest of the starters.

-The Huskers went a full half (and seven minutes into the second half) without any false starts or holding calls.  I think the discipline is getting there.  I was not however, overly impressed with push up front (or lack thereof) on WKU’s undersized defensive front.  If Nebraska’s going to be a run heavy team, obviously they’re going to need physical and dominant play from the offensive line.  On a similar note, we saw Jeremiah Sirles get the “start” over Yoshi Hardrick at left tackle, but Hardrick seemed to play more snaps.  That’s another battle that will probably continue for a a few weeks, if not longer.

-Of the defensive backs, I was most impressed with Alfonzo Dennard.  He was stuck on his man like glue all night, and he looked good in run support too.  The only question I have left for him is when will he get that elusive first interception.  Prince Amukamara was a stud as always.  Seeing him play makes me drool thinking about what he could do in the return game, but alas, the coaches think that’s too much work for him.  I have a sneaking suspicion that when he gets drafted he’s going to end up being a return ace, leaving us wondering what could have been.  Regardless, I think I would testify that Nebraska possess the best cornerback tandem in the Big 12.  Another interesting tidbit from the game was afterwards, when secondary coach Marvin Sanders announced that true frosh Ciante Evans established himself as the third corner behind Dennard and Prince.

-Now, a few predictions:

1.  Lavonte David will top 100 tackles this season.  The man flies.

2.  We’ll be more impressed with the defense against Idaho, their offense plays better into our defense.

3.  Nebraska will see at least 3 special teams touchdowns

4.  We’ll be pleasantly surprised when Bo and Carl pull the plastic on blitzing.

5.  The Blackshirts will hold Idaho to single digit points

Over/Under Win/Loss Style, 2010 Season

This will be my second annual over/under for wins.  Last year my regular season over/under prediction was 8.5.  So my track record is pretty solid.

I didn’t want to write this bad boy until the Friday before game day, but I’ve been asked one two many times how many wins we’ll get this year.  (Yes Trey, you were the straw that broke the camel’s back)  Starting with this year’s schedule…

Week 1:  Western Kentucky

Week 2:  Idaho

Week 3:  @Washington

Week 4:  South Dakota State

Week 5:  Bye

Week 6:  @Kansas State (Thursday)

Week 7:  Texas

Week 8:  @Oklahoma State

Week 9:  Missouri

Week 10:  @Iowa State

Week 11:  Kansas

Week 12:  @Texas A&M

Week 13:  Colorado

Expectations are high this year, higher than they have been in years.  Being ranked in the top 10 in both the AP and Coaches Polls, the expectations are high outside of Nebraska also.

I’m going to chalk weeks one and two up to wins.  I know that no team deserves to be overlooked, but that’s for the coaches and players to worry about.  We’ll beat WKU and Idaho.

The trip to Washington will be one of the most interesting games (and story lines) in the early weeks of the college football season.  Washington, to me, is one of the biggest mystery teams around.  I have no doubt that they will be improved, but how much?  Former USC offensive coordinator and now head coach Steve Sarkisian has got the dawgs on the fast track to success; Washington’s offense improved from bottom 10 in the nation in 2008 to 64th right around middle of the pack.  With potential top pro prospect Jake Locker under center, 1000+ yard running back Chris Polk, and a tall receiving corps headlined by Jermaine Kearse, the offense should take another significant step up in 2010.  The defense was not as improved from 2008 to 2009, but it was in fact improved.  With former USC defensive coordinator Nick Holt calling the shots, the unit should improve again in 2010.

The fact that this is a road game makes it more difficult, obviously.  But one thing to consider is how well Nebraska played on the road last year.  I’m a firm belief in the school of thought that teams that run the ball well and play great defense play well on the road, which should play right into Nebraska’s hands.  Nebraska will have the capability to pound the rock would should leave to sustained drives, minimizing crowd effect.  Chalk me up for a win.

South Dakota State is next on the schedule.  The only question is whether or not they will score more than a couple of field goals on our third string defense.  Win

Kansas State is another story.  I do think they will be better, but I’m not drinking the purple kool aid quite as heavily as those in Manhattan.  Plenty of people are failing to remember that Nebraska has bye week before this game, and you know how I feel about running the ball and playing defense.  I might be closer than I think, but I call it a win.

Next week is the big one.  Red out around the world, the revenge game, whatever you want to call it, it’s a big one.  I can’t bring my self to pose the question of replacing Colt McCoy and Jordan Shipley on offense, because then you automatically pose the question about Nebraska replacing Ndamukong Suh.  But I just can’t justify to myself how Texas is going to be a better team in 2010 than in 2009 when Nebraska came within one second of beating them.  But the Texas defense is going to be nasty.  But it’s in Lincoln.  But Nebraska is 1-9 against Texas in the last 10 meetings.  But Nebraska will be playing for revenge.  But, but, but.  I won’t call a win or loss here, we don’t know nearly enough about these teams yet.

Nebraska travels to Oklahoma State the next week, which everyone wants to classify as the classic “trap game”.  I can see it, but I just don’t see the Cowboys being a good enough to beat us, without us beating ourselves.  I’m not looking past this game or anything, I just think Oklahoma State will be simply outmatched.  I’ll call this one a win.

Missouri is nearly the same story for the opposite reason.  This is the game I see as one that could get overlooked.  I believe Missouri will be very good team this year, I’ve got them pegged to finish the year 10-3.  But it sounds like MU’s top running back Derrick Washington might be getting the boot for sexual assault charges, which will be a big blow to an already less than stellar rushing attack.  Nebraska gets the Tigers at home, and Missouri’s spread offense plays well into Nebraska’s elite secondary.  Nebraska with the win.

Iowa State and Kansas are next on the slate.  Yes, I remember that the cyclones beat Nebraska in our house last year, but unfortunately, lightning does not strike in the same spot twice.  I’ll give Nebraska two wins here.

The final two game stretch of the year will be interesting.  Texas A&M will be an offensive juggernaut, and with former Air Force defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyer calling the defense it really has nowhere to go but up.  But like Washington, A&M will be another mystery team.  Will there defense improve?  Will the offense develop elite consistency?  Can the team as a whole develop consistency?  I won’t call a win or loss for this game either because we’ll know a heck of a lot more about the two teams ten games into the season.

Finally there’s Colorado.  If Dan Hawkins isn’t fired by this game, this might the one that seals the deal for him.  Colorado has the capacity to be a good team, and they always seem to give Nebraska a run for their money, but I don’t see them winning this one.

So I’ve got Nebraska with 10 wins and two (tossups).  Don’t get me wrong, I believe Nebraska will be a good enough team to win both of those games, but they need to prove that they can be consistent and close out the close games.  Until then, I’m putting my regular season over/under at 10.5 wins.