Important Things Preseason Top 20
I get it. Preseason polls are worthless and meaningless. But I like making up a poll to look back on at the end of the season to see how well I analyzed teams before they play.
1. Oklahoma
The Sooners’ offense, led by quarterback Landry Jones will draw comparisons to OU’s 2008 offense. Tailback Roy Finch is finally living up to the hype coming out of high school, and be the key opening up their potent passing attack consisting of the best wide receiver tandem in the country – Ryan Broyles and Kenny Stills. Depth and experience on defense will make the loss of linebacker Travis Lewis sting a lot less than you may think. There’s might be an undefeated BCS conference school this season, which could give OU room for a loss at Florida State, Oklahoma State, or at home against Texas A&M.
2. Alabama
Bama’s beatdown of a solid Michigan State squad in last year’s bowl game was a preview of the Tide in 2011. The defense will be legendary thanks to 10 returning starters and at least five potential first round draft picks – linebackers Courtney Upshaw and Donte Hightower, safeties Robert Lester and Mark Barron, and cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick. Their offense could easily be pedestrian after losing quarterback Greg McElroy, receiver and top 10 draft pick Julio Jones, first round pick and Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram, and first round draft pick offensive tackle James Carpenter. However, tailback Trent Richardson will look like Ricky Williams in a Crimson Jersey. Even if the offense is average, if they can score 14 points per game the defense will win games for them.
3. Oregon
The Ducks’ are in good shape to be the one-loss team that makes it to the BCS title game. Even if they do lose to highly-ranked LSU in the season opener, thye won’t fall far, and the past has shown us that losing a game early is far better than losing one late in the season. Even so, I predict them to win that game, but they have potential losses at Stanford and traps games at Washington at home against USC. The two keys on offense are back - quarterback Darron Thomas and Heisman Trophy finalist LaMichael James. They are the cogs that make Chip Kelly’s prolific offenses work, and will overcome the lack of depth at other skill positions. Thomas won’t have his safety net of a receiver in Jeff Maehl, but Oregon has talent at every position that just need some snaps.
4. Stanford
All the pieces are there for the Cardinal to continue their dominance post-Jim Harbaugh. Junior quarterback Andrew Luck is head and shoulders above any quarterback in the game, and would be a starter on half of the NFL’s sqauds. Their pro style offense will be dominant in the Pac-12, a conference that lacks elite defenses, aside from Stanford potentially. Jim Harbaugh quietly build up a great defense before he left, and most of the key members return. They’ll cruise through the first seven games before a potential road block at USC, where Monte Kiffin’s defense should never be counted out. They get Oregon at home in the middle of November, when the Ducks’ offense may be scouted by. Maybe.
5. Texas A&M
The only Big 12 team that could have a better offense than Oklahoma is undoubtedly A&M. They became a championship-caliber unit when Ryan Tannehill took the reins at quarterback, throwing to potentially the best three-man wide receiving squad in th nation – Jeff Fuller, Ryan Swope, and Uzoma Nuwachukwu. They’ll sport the best running back duo in the conference with Christine Michael and Cyrus Gray. The wrecking crew defense will see a resurgence under second-year defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, a defensive genius who will be the head coach of a major program in the next five years. They get Oklahoma State at home, and shoud be able to handle Arkansas at home early in the season. A November trip to Oklahoma will be the games that costs the Aggies the Big 12 Championship.
6. Florida State
Jimbo Fisher’s squad has everything it takes to rip through the ACC like a wet napkin. However, Oklahoma comes to town September 17 and will give the Seminoles their one and only loss. Other than that, the schedule sets up nicely for them, likely without a single ranked opponent in conference play. They do travel to Florida in the final game of the season, when Will Muschamp’s Gators may be rolling by, but FSU is still the better team. The defense is only going to continue getting better under Mark Stoops, and the studs in the back seven are finally going to shine, especially corner Greg Reid. The offense, led by E.J. Manuel should start playing consistently at the level they showed flashes of last year. Seminole fans can start buying their Orange Bowl tickets as soon as they go on sale.
7. Boise State
As long Chris Petersen is the coach and Kellen Moore is the quarterback, the Broncos are basically a lock for the top 10. Moore, a Heisman finalist, will surpass Colt McCoy as the all-time leader for games won as a starter. He may have lost his top two receiving targets Titus Young and Austin Pettis to the NFL, but the offensive line is tested. Tailback Doug Martin returns after rushing for over 1100 yards in 2010. Boise’s defensive line is deep, talented, and experienced, and should be able to shut down nearly all of their opponents. They have losable games starting week one when they travel to Georgia, where they Bulldogs have high expectations this year. They have their third game against TCU in the last four years, which looks to be a defensive showdown. Finally, they have a potential trap game late in the season against San Diego State, led by potential first round draft pick Ryan Lindley and sophomore sensation tailback Ronnie Hillman, who rushed for over 1500 yards as a true freshman in 2010.
8. Virginia Tech
The Hokies’ schedule is an absolute cakewalk. Florida State may not play a ranked opponent in conference play, but VT probably won’t play a ranked opponent all season. If first year quarterback Logan Thomas is half as good as experts like Ryan McGee and Bruce Feldman say he is, the Hokies have no excuse not to go 12-0 in the regualar season. Bud Foster’s perennial elite defense will be headlined by all-ACC corner and potential first round draft pick Jayron Hosely. The offense may have lost Tyrod Taylor and tailbacks Darren Evans and Ryan Williams, but the top four receivers all return. Unfortunately for VT, they will meet a deeper and more talented Florida State in the ACC Championship for their first loss.
9. LSU
LSU can’t keep having the ridiculous luck that they’ve had under Les Miles, right? I don’t think so. While the Tigers’ defense should be stout, the offense lost their leading rusher tailback Stevan Ridley to the NFL. The next leading rusher after him? Quarterback Jordan Jefferson, with 383 yards. As a quarterback, Jefferson is still pedestrian. He has weapons around him however, in receivers Reuben Randle and Russell Shepard. Jefferson may be sub-par as a passer, but his supporting cast will make him better, and the defense under John Chavis will be second only in the SEC to Alabama. If they weren’t in the SEC West with games at Mississipi State, West Virginia, and Alabama, and home games against Oregon, Florida, and Arkansas, they would be in my top five.
10. TCU
The Frogs’ defense will be stout as ever under Gary Patterson and defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas, which would usually merit a top five ranking. But former quarterback Andy Dalton, the reason TCU emerged as a perennial powerhouse in the last three years has moved on to the NFL. The loss of receiver and ace kick returner Jeremy Kerley will show as well. Their top receiver Josh Boyce and leading rusher Ed Wesley will provide reliable target and safety for first year quarterback Casey Paschall. And yet again, like LSU, TCU’s defense will be good enough to win 11 games. An October game against San Diego State will be a tough but winnable game for the Frogs, and the only should come at the hands of Boise State in the 10th game of the season.
11. Oklahoma State
Brandon Weeden to Justing Blackmon would be good for nine wins at almost any school. In the top heavy Big 12 it should be good enough for 10 wins. The Cowboy air attack will as potent as ever under Mike Gundy, but offensive coordinator Dana Holgerson is gone to West Virginia. And perhaps even more damaging is the loss of tailback Kendall Hunter, who rushed for over 4000 yards during his career in Stillwater. Without the rushing prowess that Hunter brought, I have a hard time believing freeing up the passing game as easily, OSU’s offensive line will be great yet again, anchored by all-Big 12 tackle Levy Adcock. But with Mike Gundy running the offense again, they will find ways to use the weapons they have.
12. Wisconsin
Bringing in former NC State star quarterback Russell Wilson to replace now San Diego Charger Scott Tolzien certainly give the Badgers a boost, but the Badgers have too much to replace to make a national championship run. All-American tackle Gabe Carimi is gone to the NFL as well as guard John Moffit. They also lost tight end and leading receiver Lance Kendricks, tailback John Clay, and receiver David Gilreath. But Wilson still has targets outside and a solid running back tandem of James White and Montee Ball, as long as Bret Bielema is the coach the offensive line will be great. The defense also lost valuable members in J.J. Watt and safety Jay Valai, but Wisconsin’s defense has relied on good fundamentals, not just superstars. Wisconsin should win the Big Ten, but much of the season relies on how well Russell Wilson does with the little preparation time that he’s had.
13. South Carolina
This year’s squad is in line to be Steve Spurrier’s best team he’s fielded as head coach at South Carolina, and they will be SEC East Champions again. An early test against an improved Georgia team should give a good impression of where they stand, but it only gets tougher with games at Mississippi State and Arkansas, and home games against Florida, Auburn, and Clemson. The offense should be the best in a long time with inconsistent but tested quarterback Stephen Garcia, All-Everything receiver Alshon Jefferey, and tailback Marcus Lattimore. Defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson strong unit will be headlined potential first round pick Stephon Gilmore. If they play to their ability, the Gamecocks could go undefeated in the regular season, but until Spurrier’s team shows consistency they could be between 8-4 to 11-1 in the tough SEC.
14. Nebraska
Not surprisingly, defense looks to be the Huskers’ cornerstone in Bo Pelini’s fourth year as head coach. With an All-American at all three levels of the defense – defensive tackle Jared Crick, linebacker Lavonte David, and corner Alfonzo Dennard – Carl Pelini will have his deepest unit yet. The offense is what has kept Nebraska from reaching elite status under Pelini, but new offensive coordinator Tim Beck’s aggressive mindset has Husker fans hopeful. If early 2010 sensation quarterback Taylor Martinez has improved in the passing game in the off season, the weapons and speed are there for the offense to be in the top half of the Big Ten. The Huskers will win the new Legends division, but key games at Wisconsin and Penn State and home games against Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa will show if they’re good enough to win the Big Ten in their first season there.
15. Arkansas
The entire off season at Arkansas seemed to center on the transition from former quarterback Ryan Mallett to Tyler Wilson, some saying that he could be even better than Mallett. Personally, I don’t buy that, but from what the experts have been writing after seeing him in action, it sounds like the Hogs could have the best offense in the SEC. However, starting tailback Knile Davis, who most heralded as the top back in the conference, tore a tendon and is lost for the season. The bulk of the carries will now go to Ronnie Wingo JR., a once a highly touted back in his own right. As if that wasn’t enough the worry about, they have a brutal schedule with home games against Texas A&M and South Carolina, and Mississippi State, and road visits to Alabama and LSU. They will be a very good team, but won’t walk away from those five games without at least two losses or more.
16. Michigan State
The Spartans got exposed as possibly overrated last year after being spanked by Alabama in the Capital One Bowl. However, they have talent and experience coming back across the board as should be improved from last year. The offense should be potent with the impressive backfield of quarterback Kirk Cousins and tailback Edwin Baker, despite the loss of offensive coordinator Don Treadwell. The defense, anchored by star defensive tackle Jerel Worthy should be stout as MSU continues its recent tradition of producing great linebackers. If not for a difficult schedule with games at an improving Notre Dame, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern, and home games against Wisconsin and Michigan. If they can pull off some upsets in conference play, especially one at Nebraska, they could win the Legends division.
17. Florida
The country should be frightened at how good Florida is going to be in the coming years with the dream team of a coaching staff that they have. For the time being, it is still Muchamp and Weis’ first year as coaches there. The talent is all there across the board, but much of the defensive back seven is raw and unexperienced, with safety Will Hill being the biggest exception. The offense could be very good under Weis with quarterback John Brantley, tailback Jeff Demps, and receivers Deonte Cooper and Andre Dubose. The strongest point of the defense is speed, not size, which can make the transition from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense difficult. They should be playing at a high level by the second half of the season, unfortunately for them, games against Georgia, Alabama, and at LSU are in the first eight games. After that they play at South Carolina and home against in-state rival Florida State.
18. USC
Hate on Lane Kiffin all you want, but he’s a fine offensive mind and quarterback coach, and he’s got an virtuoso at the helm of his offense in Matt Barkley. The reason Barkley doesn’t receive the credit he deserves is overshadowing of Andrew Luck. Kiffin will have the stacked Trojans firing on all cylinders this year on offense, and defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin will field the best defense in the Pac 12. USC has a veteran offensive line anchored by first round lock Matt Kalil, and tailback Dillon Baxter will be a household name by the middle of October. They should be 7-0 when Stanford rolls into town and hands them their first loss if they avoid potential trap losses to Stanford, Utah, and Arizona State. Their trip to Oregon will be the second loss of the season. They may not be able to compete in the post season, but they will be top dog in the Pac 12 South
19. Missouri
They may have lost quarterback Blaine Gabbert to the first round of the NFL draft, but Missouri should be an even better all-around team in 2011. Defensive coordinator Dave Steckel has quietly brought a resurgence to the Tiger defense in the last two years, leading them to a 6th-ranked scoring defense in 2010. The coaching is there, and they have the most talented defensive line in the Big 12. If first year quarterback James Franklin plays like the flashes he showed in 2010, Missouri’s stacked receiving corps will make him look even better. They return their top four receivers, including All-American tight end Michael Egnew and 800+ yard receiver T.J. Moe. The bad news for Missouri is the schedule, with away games at Oklahoma and Texas A&M. Even the home game against Oklahoma State could be a loss. They should pull off one of those upsets, but if not a 9-3 record probably won’t even score them a Cotton Bowl bid behind OU, OSU and A&M.
20. Ohio State
Amidst the tattoo gate scandal, many people think the punishments were going to affect the football team more than it actually will. It cost them Terrelle Pryor and Jim Tressel, but most parts of the football team are actually still there. I would rank them higher if not for the seniors lost to the draft, no the loss of Pryor and Tressel. They lost five players to the draft, not including free agent signing of receiver Dane Sanzenbacher. The remaining players players on defense are still great players, including linebackers Andrew Sweat and Tyler Moeller. The offense will have a first year quarterback after the quarterback battle ends. On offense they return tailback Boom Herron and tight end Jake Stoneburner at skill positions, and J.B. Shugarts and All-Big Ten tackle Mike Adams on the offensive line. They get Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Penn State at home, but have to travel to Nebraska as the Huskers’ first Big Ten opponent.
