The Important Things’ Preseason College Football Top 25

Looking ahead to 2010

It’s never too early to look ahead to College Football in 2010.  The 2010 college football polls are obviously going to look different, here’s my take.

1.  Ohio State – The Buckeyes Are coming off an impressive all-around performance against Oregon in the Rose Bowl, and the momentum should keep them rolling.  OSU returns 7 starters on a perennially stout defense, which will include defensive ends Thaddeus Gibson, Cameron Heyward, and cornerback Chimdi Chekwa, all of whom will be All-Big 10 contenders.  The Buckeye’s average offense should improve drastically over the offseason, now that Jim Tressel has taken the training wheels off of Terrelle Pryor.   Returning 9 starters will help as well.  To me, the only question left for Ohio State is whether or not they can finally win a BCS National Championship game.

2.  Alabama – A lot of pundits think that Alabama will be the favorite to repeat as BCS National Champs, but I can’t see a team that loses 9 starters on defense (and a total of 11 to the NFL Draft) have equal success the following year.  Sure, Alabama has recruited in the top 3 for the past 4 years, but so has USC, and the Trojans defense took a major dip when they lost multiple key starters from the 2008 squad. (Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews, Brian Cushing.)  Alabama’s offense however, should be improved.  Obviously, they return Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram at running back, as well as Trent Richardson, who could be a Heisman contender in his own right.  Rounding out with quarterback Greg McElroy and wide receiver Julio Jones, the Tide will field an impressive offense.

3.  Boise State - The Broncos have proven to me that they at least deserve a shot to get serious BCS Championship contention in the beginning of the year.  Boise has done everything they can with the exception of  scheduling tougher games (yes, they have had the opportunity), and it’s practically a given that they will run the table in the WAC next year.  A neutral sight game against Virginia Tech could determine it all for this Boise squad that returns 21 starters, most notably quarterback Kellen Moore, who could be a serious Heisman contender.

4.  Oregon – A lot of questions still remain about the legal statuses of tailback LaMichael James, as well as quarterback Jeremiah Masoli.  Barring serious legal ramifications, Oregon should return as the favorite to win the Pac 10 for the second consecutive year.  Oregon’s biggest offseason loss comes in the form of tight end Ed Dickson, but Chip Kelly and the Ducks have always and should continue to field an elite offense, next year shouldn’t be any different.

5.  Florida – UF fans going to have to adjust to life after Tim Tebow, but elite recruiting will keep them among the top spots.  Most notably they must replace linebacker Brandon Spikes, defensive ends Jermaine Cunningham & Carlos Dunlap, defensive backs Joe Haden & Major Wright, receiver Riley Cooper, and of course, Tim Tebow.  However, new starting QB John Brantley will step into the fold and should succeed right away.  He was considered to be among the top five SEC quarterbacks in 2009, when he wasn’t even starting.  Florida’s run game should be at it’s best in recent years, and incoming playmaker Andre DeBose has high expectations for good reason.

6.  USC – New coach Lane Kiffin started strong by closing out the top recruiting class in 2010.  The team’s success shouldn’t dwindle much from the loss of Pete Carroll, nearly all the pieces are still there for this to be an incredibly talented football team.  Once top recruit Matt Barkley will be going into his second year as a starter, and should have a handle on the offense.  The defense took a major shot with the personnel losses from 2008, but the new starters are ready to take over as the next crop of elite USC players.  The schedule sets up nicely for the Trojans next year as well.

7.  Nebraska – To the untrained eye, Nebraska would appear to have peaked somewhat in 2009 with a 10 win season thanks to a championship caliber defense.  However, the defense returns 6 pure starters, but also 5 players with at least 5 starts.  The stagnant offense will return all its starters minus center Jacob Hickman.  If the offense (which contains 2 of Mel Kiper’s top players for 2010 by position) can step it up, and the defense can play at top 20 caliber, Nebraska should be the favorite to win the Big 12.  Exceptional and experienced special teams could be the tipping point.  The schedule also sets up favorable for the Big Red, they play Texas, Missouri, and Kansas at home.

8.  Oklahoma – The Sooners should be back to being an elite offense in Landry Jones’ second year of major starting experience.  After serious personnel losses on the O-line in 2008, the new linemen improved over the course of the 2009 season and should be performing at a high level come fall.  Of the 3 contenders for the Big 12, Oklahoma likely loses the least (DT Gerald McCoy, CB Dom Franks, LB Ryan Reynolds) on a defense that ranked top-15 nationally in 2009.  OU will be my favorite to take the Big 12 South.

9.  Virginia Tech – The Hokies have some reloading to do, specifically on defense.  Defensive end Jason Worilds will be missed, as well as safety Kam Chancellor.  Other notable losses include cornerback Steven Virgil and offensive linemen Sergio Render and Ed Wang.  However, VT will return top rusher Ryan Williams, who could be a serious Heisman contender, as well as 2008 ace running back Darren Evans.  Defensive coordinator Bud Foster always posts a top 15 defensive unit, and we all know about Virginia Tech and their special teams.  November 20th at Miami could determine the ACC coastal division.

10.   Texas – Like Florida, Longhorn fans are going to have to cope with the loss of the NCAA’s career leader in wins by a quarterback in Colt McCoy.  Adam Ulatoski, Chris Hall, and Charlie Tanner will all be lost on the offensive line, as well as Sergio Kindle and Lamarr Houston on the defensive line.  Inside linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy, kicker Hunter Lawrence, and top safety Early Thomas will need to be replaced as well, but Texas should sport one of the top secondary units in the nation, and defensive end Alex Okafor is set to become the next great edge rusher after Brian Orakpo and Sergio Kindle.  Garret Gilbert received invaluable experience playing Alabama in last year’s BCS title game, and should be in full swing by conference play.

11.  Wisconsin – The Badgers seemed to have come out of nowhere in the second half of the 2009 season, and should be a legitimate Big 10 contender in 2010.  Wisconsin will return nearly all of its key starters on defense that ranked 17th nationally last season, although losing linebacker O’Brien Schofeld won’t be easy.  Behind the running game of 1500 yard rusher John Clay, quarterback Scott Tolzien should be ready to lead Wisconsin to the top of the Big 10.  The Badgers get Ohio State at home, but have to travel to Iowa.

12. TCU – I have always been skeptical of whether or not TCU has all the guns to be an elite team, and the Fiesta Bowl loss to Boise State didn’t help their cause.  The Frogs will have some major losses in D end Jerry Hughes and linebacker Daryl Washington.  They also must replace 2 starting corners.  However, Gary Patterson and his defensive have statistically been the number one defensive unit in the country for the past two years, so I can’t expect them to fall far.  Some say quarterback Andy Dalton has a shot to be a Heisman contender next year, and receiver Jeremy Kerley is and will continue to be one of the most dynamic playmakers in the game.

13.  North Carolina -IMPORTANT THINGS SLEEPER ALERT.  The Tarheels snuck by in 2009 with the 6th ranked defense in all the country, and returns all key defenders except for defensive tackle Cam Thomas.  UNC’s defensive unit next year could very possibly sport 4, yes you read that correctly FOUR All-Americans; linebackers Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter, defensive tackle Marvin Austin, and safety Deunta Williams.  Quarterback T.J. Yates will be entering his third year starting, and it will be make or break time for him.  North Carolina plays a murderer’s row of a schedule, with OOC games against LSU, Georgia Tech, and Rutgers, as well as conference games at Miami and Florida State.  However, any old school football fan will tell you that teams that play great defense play great on the road, and North Carolina just might have the best defense in all the land next year.

14.  LSU -The tigers must cope with plenty of personnel losses on both sides of the ball, but it seems as though they always do.  Most notably, they lose RB Charles Scott, KR Trindon Holliday, OT Ciron Black, DT Al Woods, and S Chad Jones, just to name a few.  However, LSU has cupboard full of offensive playmakers that should be ready to turn around the offense, that really has no where to go but up.  Wide receivers Terrance Tolliver and Reuben Randle should provide quarterback Jordan Jefferson with some dangerous targets.  If the run game can pick up some speed, the always stout LSU defense should keep them in nearly any game.

15.  Pittsburgh – The loss of quarterback Bill Stull sting, as well as losing freak athlete TE Dorin Dickerson.  The Panthers will also have to replace their second TE (they run a 2 tight end offensive set) Nate Byham.  However, running back Dion Lewis will be in serious contention to be the third straight sophomore to win the Heisman Trophy.  Wide receiver Jonathan Baldwin is poised to become the next great receiver out of Pitt since Larry Fitzgerald, and the defense returns several key starters, including sack master Greg Romeus.  Pitt will be the favorite in the Big East.

16.  Iowa – Iowa is losing a lot more personnel than most might think, but they should sustain enough momentum and talent to compete with Ohio State and Wisconsin for the Big 10 title again in 2010.  The running game will be interesting to watch with the losses of Bryan Bulaga, Kyle Calloway, and Dace Richardson on the O-line, but the return of Jewel Hampton, Adam Robinson, and Branson Wegher in the backfield.  Ricky Stanzi will be entering his third season as the Hawkeye’s quarterback, and should play well enough to lead the team.  Defensive losses of corner Amari Spievey and linebacker Pat Angerer will hurt, but the return of defensive end Adrian Clayborn should keep the unit solid.

17.  Houston – Senior quarterback Case Keenum just may break the NCAA single season record for passing yards in 2010 if he stays on pace.  Kevin Sumlin’s squad returns 9 starters on offense and 9 on defense, not that last year’s D was anything to write home about.  Nonetheless, the defense should be improved, and with Case Keenum at the helm, and with returning lead rusher Bryce Beall, the Cougars’ offense will be scary.  They will be the favorite in Conference USA, but games at UCLA and Texas Tech could threaten a perfect season.

18.  Miami – Miami is a team that I just can’t seem to figure out.  Randy Shannon has recruited like crazy for the past 3 years, but the Canes can’t seem to complete anything, be it a single game, a drive, or a whole season.  The offense returns plenty of talent including running back Graig Cooper, receivers Leonard Hankerson & LaRon Byrd, and an experienced line, ad quarterback Jacory Harris.  If Harris can cut back on the INT’s, Mark Whipple and the Miami offense could be the best in the ACC.  If the defense starts playing at the level that Florida talent is capable of, they could compete on the national stage.  Until Randy Shannon shows me otherwise, they’re my 18.

19.  Georgia Tech – Georgia Tech is another team that will be a tale of two sides of the ball.  After losing tailback Jonathan Dwyer and leading receiver DeMarius Thomas, quarterback Josh Nesbitt will have his work cut out for him.  Paul Johnson should keep the offense exciting as usual, but can they compete in the ever improving ACC without Dwyer and Thomas?  The defense will be another area of concern.  Losing their 2 top defenders (S Morgan Burnett and DE Derrick Morgan) won’t help, and the transition to a 3-4 defense under new DC Al Groh might lead some growing pains.  Under Paul Johnson, The Ramblin’ Wreck have found ways to win game in and game out, which is something you can’t put on a stat sheet, but is an invaluable quality.

20.  Texas Tech – Under new coach Tommy Tuberville, the Red Raiders have the offensive athletes in place to continue Tech’s run of continual top offenses.  Steven Sheffield should leave spring ball with the starting job, and will shock the world not only as one of the Big 12′s top quarterbacks, but one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the game.  Receivers Lyle Leong and Detron Lewis should continue to keep the reveiving game up, and the now prominent running game will be helped immensely by the power of Baron Batch and the speed of Harrison Jeffers.

21.  Penn State – The Nittany Lions have a lot of replacing to do.  Quarterback Darryl Clark, linebackers Sean Lee, Navarro Bowman, and Josh Hull, and All-Big 10 defensive tackle Jared Odrick.  However, Penn State has historically been one of the best teams in creating continuity by replacing players.  The Lions have 3 very capable quarterbacks waiting in the wings, and running back Evan Royster and an experienced offensive line should take off some pressure.  The defense will need help reloading (namely the LBs), but they don’t call PSU “Linebacker U” for no reason.

22.  Utah – Most wrote the Utes off following their Sugar Bowl upset over Alabama, completing a perfect 13-0 season.  However, Coach Kyle Whittingham kept Utah scratching and clawing in 2009 and finished with a 10 win season including an impressive win over Cal in the post season.  The return of quarterback Jordan Winn and running back Eddie Wide should provide a solid platform for the offense.  As Utah’s former D-coordinator, Whittingham will keep the Utes playing tough D, and in the top 20 statistically.  An early game against Pitt should give an idea of how good they really are.

23.  Oregon State – The Beaves will be an interesting team to watch in the Pac 10 race, especially if they find themselves a quarterback who can play ball.  Jacquizz Rodgers (believe it or not) will be entering his junior season, and should also be a contender in the Heisman trophy race.  Brother James Rodgers will also be a key offensive weapon at receiver, and the Beavers return 10 starters on a defense that should be among the best in the Pac 10.

24.  Cincinnati – Tony Pike, Mardy Gilyard, and head coach Brian Kelly are all gone, but new coach Butch Jones is a carbon copy offensively of Brian Kelly.  The Bearcats’ defense was not very impressive at all last year, but returns several key starters and should be improved.  Soon-to-be starting quarterback Zach Callaros will pick up right where Tony Pike left off, but with more mobility outside of the pocket, and more than adequate running ability.  Receiver Armon Binns will be among the elite in the country next year, and should help Butch Jones and Callaros keep the offense on top of the Big East again in 2010.

25.  Florida State – The Seminoles, like Miami, have had major consistency problems in the past few years.  However, I believe with the retiring of Bobby Bowden and Micky Andrews will bring about a refreshing change to Tallahassee for the better.  The ‘Noles return All-ACC quarterback Christian Ponder, who will be among the early favorite for pre-season All-American status and Heisman contention.  Lot’s of young blue-chip talent may give FSU’s struggling defense a spark.  If new defensive coordinator Mark Stoops can field an average defense (which he is more than capable of doing) the offense will be able to outscore nearly anyone.

Just missed the cut – Auburn, Missouri, Navy, Brigham Young, Stanford, Rutgers, UCLA, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Connecticut, Arkansas